{"id":991882,"date":"2025-09-13T22:03:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T19:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wayanatapas.com\/?p=991882"},"modified":"2026-07-06T12:35:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T09:35:35","slug":"sarabin-sorunu-ne-nasil-cozulur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wayanatapas.com\/en\/sarabin-sorunu-ne-nasil-cozulur\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015earab\u0131n Sorunu Ne? Nas\u0131l \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bug\u00fcn k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u015farap end\u00fcstrisi, sadece ekonomik dalgalanmalarla de\u011fil, t\u00fcketici al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi yap\u0131sal bir krizle m\u00fccadele ediyor. Hollanda merkezli Rabobank, tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde uzmanla\u015fan ve sekt\u00f6rel de\u011ferlendirmeleri profesyoneller taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nan bir kurum. Rabobank\u2019In G\u0131da ve Tar\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn y\u00f6neticisi Stephen Rannekleiv\u2019in, \u015farap sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirmelerinin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 \u015farap d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 ilgiyle takip eden sizler i\u00e7in \u00f6zetledik.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Don\u2019t look for references to our own country in the report\u2014there aren\u2019t any. But the Turkish wine sector is not immune to global developments. Even if Turkey is not mentioned by name, we can still benefit from both the analyses and the projections.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Rannekleiv points out that wine sales, which have been declining for three years, are the result of both structural and transitory factors\u2014and that there are solutions available to counter the downturn.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/div>

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\"\u015earap\"<\/figure>\r\n<\/div><\/div>
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What Has Happened Recently?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Here\u2019s how he sums up the situation so far:\n\u201cAlmost no major market is in growth mode\u2026 and in the US, for both domestic and foreign suppliers, sales have been falling since the middle of 2022, quite sharply\u2014and in a way that caught everyone off guard. The result has been an oversupply in the US market, and now everyone is looking for answers on how to get back to growth.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This oversupply in the US is not the result of overproduction, but of declining demand\u2014especially as financial pressures pushed down wine consumption.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Let\u2019s recall: during the pandemic (2020\u20132021), the US wine market actually grew, fueled by consumers staying home and drinking more. But Rannekleiv reminds us that the slowdown in US wine demand had already begun before Covid:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u201cVolumes were leveling off or turning slightly negative. At that time, premiumization was underway\u2014we were losing low-end volume, but the high end was doing very well.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In 2022, however, the trend shifted. Inflation began to take hold, and some of the declines were clearly tied to that:\n\u201cConsumer confidence has gone back to levels reminiscent of the global financial crisis or the worst days of Covid.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

He notes how this plays out in other drinks and hospitality sectors:\n\u201cConsumption has shifted to smaller bottles\u2014they\u2019re not buying 750 ml anymore\u2014they\u2019re looking for value, and they\u2019re moving away from fine dining toward fast casual restaurants.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

But the fall in wine is not only about purchasing power. Rannekleiv emphasizes that shifting views on the health impacts of even moderate alcohol consumption also play a role.\nAnd let\u2019s not forget demographics: younger consumers, who are becoming a much larger share of the US market, simply don\u2019t have the money. Their budgets are tighter.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The conclusion? Some reasons for the decline are \u201cstructural,\u201d others are \u201ctransitory.\u201d But when it comes to the economic-driven slowdown, Rannekleiv warns that inflation is \u201cgoing to be sticky,\u201d especially with wine price hikes and tariff burdens.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What Lies Ahead?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Rannekleiv asks:\n\u201cAt what point will consumer incomes really catch up with inflation?\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

If incomes returned to pre-Covid levels, he argues, we might dismiss today\u2019s slump as transitory. But for now, the situation threatens profitability across the industry\u2014an issue set to be discussed at the next Drinks Business conference.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

He outlines the dilemma:\n\u201cProducers face rising costs of production, and passing those costs on to consumers is a major challenge. Wineries want to protect profit margins, but each price hike risks losing volume. The less volume you sell, the higher your fixed cost per unit becomes.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This, he explains, is why wine is losing ground to other categories in the US:\n\u201cThe cost per serving of wine is much higher than for beer or spirits, which makes wine less attractive and spirits more appealing.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What can be done? \nRannekleiv is candid:\n\u201cIt\u2019s hard, but at least in the US market, we haven\u2019t done a very good job of creating entry-level products that make wine accessible and interesting at attractive prices.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Over the last 20 years, nearly all efforts went into premiumization, pushing consumers up the ladder. That strategy worked for Boomers and Gen X, but today\u2019s younger generation lacks exciting, affordable brands they would proudly bring to a party.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Sekt\u00f6r bunun fark\u0131nda ve \u00e7\u00f6zmek istiyor. Ama sorun \u015fu ki bug\u00fcn perakendeciler yeni \u015farap markalar\u0131 eklemekle ilgilenmiyor. Aksine, perakendeciler \u015faraba ayr\u0131lan raf alan\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak de\u011fil, azaltmak istiyor. \u00d6zellikle de \u015fi\u015fesi 10 dolar alt\u0131 markalara pek ilgi g\u00f6stermiyorlar.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Retailers aren\u2019t helping either:\n\u201cThey\u2019re reducing shelf space for wine, not expanding it\u2014and they have little interest in brands under $10.\u201d\nThe challenge ahead is to reset the value story, creating affordable, engaging brands that resonate with younger consumers and fit their budgets.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

K\u00fcresel End\u00fcstride \u015earap K\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn De\u011fi\u015fen Kodlar\u0131<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u201c\u015earap sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hep ayn\u0131 hik\u00e2yeleri anlat\u0131yor: \u00fcz\u00fcm\u00fcn kalitesinden, aile ge\u00e7mi\u015finden, ba\u011flardan, \u015fatolardan s\u00f6z ediyorlar. Ama t\u00fcketiciyle ger\u00e7ek bir ba\u011f kurulam\u0131yor; ki\u015fisel ya da duygusal bir ba\u011f yok. Bu y\u00fczden markalar birbirlerinin\u00a0yerine ge\u00e7ebilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

By contrast, spirits excel here:\n\u201cSpirits have clear, compelling identities and connect emotionally with consumers.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

As US retailers trim wine shelf space, the weakest brands are being weeded out. Those that can\u2019t connect are disappearing.<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

But there\u2019s a silver lining:\n\u201cFor brands that stay, it\u2019s like pouring gasoline on the fire\u2014the winners get stronger, while the losers really suffer.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Long-Term Outlook\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Despite the current storm, Rannekleiv remains cautiously optimistic:\n\u201cFor those in it for the long haul, the challenges are real but surmountable. The wine industry has seen many cycles before. This one, too, will end. The big question is when. But we shouldn\u2019t assume declines will last forever\u2014just as we shouldn\u2019t assume growth will either.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What About Turkey?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u015farap \u00fcretiminde siyasi r\u00fczgar\u0131n olumsuz bir y\u00f6nden esti\u011fi herkesce biliniyor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda 82 milyon litre olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u015farap \u00fcretim miktar\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te 65 milyon litreye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2024 i\u00e7in sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir rakam\u0131 hen\u00fcz elde edemedik. Ama pazardaki hareketi g\u00f6zledi\u011fimizde daha iyiye gitmedi\u011fine i\u015faret eden g\u00f6stergeler var. Sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran \u00fcretici bulmak pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Much like in the US, Turkey saw a push toward premium wines in recent years. But today, producers are turning to lower-priced series to address collapsing purchasing power. The sharp decline in consumer spending has caught Turkish producers off guard, and now new solutions are emerging to adapt to the reality.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Final Word<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi, ABD pazar\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanan raporun T\u00fcrk pazar\u0131na yans\u0131malar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck paralellikler g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik krizinin \u015farap \u00fczerindeki etkileri devam edecek. Ama her \u015feye ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrk pazar\u0131 farkl\u0131 dinamiklere de sahip. Ba\u015fka pazarlarda olmayan yeni \u00fcz\u00fcmlerden yap\u0131lan \u015faraplar, her \u015feye ra\u011fmen g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc karart\u0131p \u015faraphane kuran ceng\u00e2verler olduk\u00e7a T\u00fcrk pazar\u0131ndan \u00fcmit kesilmeyecek.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

So let\u2019s not give up hope.<\/p>\r\n

K\u00fcresel \u015farap d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki bu yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, yeni nesil t\u00fcketici al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizler ve end\u00fcstrinin kurallar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u00e7\u00fc felsefe ilginizi \u00e7ekiyorsa, blogumuzdaki di\u011fer vizyoner analizlerimize da g\u00f6z atabilirsiniz:<\/p>\r\n