Part 1

To truly speak of the future, we must first understand the shifts that brought us here—and the landscape we find ourselves in today. Once the scope of this piece became clear, I realized it was best to share it in two parts. This issue features the first installment; the second will follow in our next bulletin.

An entrepreneur, by nature, cannot afford to be a pessimist. Optimism is almost a prerequisite to believing in the future success of your own ventures. That doesn’t mean being reckless, of course. On the contrary: the uncertainties of the future often force us optimists to be even more cautious. After all, if we’re still standing today, it’s likely because we’ve stumbled before—and learned how to get back up, carrying our optimism with us.

If we look at the state of things today, there may not be many obvious reasons to remain hopeful. And if what you’ve read so far feels like a declaration of doom, I’m happy to say you’re mistaken. I firmly—and rationally—believe that Turkish wine has a bright future. I’ve written this to share the reasons why.

A LOOK AT WHERE WE STAND—AND HOW WE GOT HERE

When the Republic of Turkey was founded following the fall of the Ottoman Empire, this land was already a country of vineyards. During the Ottoman era, winemaking was largely left to the Christian population, which meant viticultural knowledge was passed down through generations within that community.

The forced migrations of the early 20th century—the Armenian deportations and the population exchange with Greece—disrupted this legacy. The Balkan immigrants who settled in Anatolia had little connection to viticulture. So, in response, the young Republic sought foreign expertise to revive the industry.

But winemaking wasn’t the core objective. What the state prioritized was economic development through productive vineyards—so that farmers could earn more and live better lives. Since wine is the highest-value product of the grapevine, the government tasked TEKEL (the state monopoly) with building wine factories. In essence, this was a social investment project, designed with economic uplift in mind.

Thanks to this initiative, pilot projects were launched across the country and TEKEL established wineries of various sizes in different regions. In the aftermath of WWII, just as Europe was rebuilding its wine industry, Turkey stood out as a promising candidate for global winemaking. In fact, the 1949 annual meeting of the OIV (International Organisation of Vine and Wine) was held in Istanbul, attended at the ministerial level. Ambitious goals were set for the years to come.

But the political winds shifted with the change in government in 1950. Winemaking quickly fell down the list of national priorities. The viticultural and winemaking momentum sparked by the state gradually lost steam—and without macro-level policy support, the industry would spend the next 40 years waiting for its second chance.

If we can speak of a bright future for Turkish wine today, it’s thanks to the passionate entrepreneurs who stepped in during the 1980s—and to the brave individuals who took it upon themselves to bring our forgotten native grapes back to life.

To all of them, we owe our deepest gratitude.

THE GLOBAL WINE INDUSTRY: TODAY AND TOMORROW

The postwar economic boom that shaped the modern world also lifted the wine industry. Over the next 75 years, wine grew steadily. But that momentum has now slowed—and by 2023, the trend reversed, and global consumption declined. 

Back in 1950, per capita wine consumption was double what it is today. All signs suggest this downward trend may continue until we reach just one-third of those historic levels.

Meanwhile, wine remains a major player in international trade. New tariff regimes introduced under Donald Trump’s presidency will likely have long-term effects—especially for France, Italy, and Spain, whose wine exports to the U.S. remain vital. The consequences are yet to be fully seen.

Turkey, however, is still too small to register on global wine charts—in terms of production, consumption, or export. So if there’s light on the horizon for Turkish wine, we’ll have to look for it somewhere else.

PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION, AND SALES: A REALITY CHECK

Around the world, there’s a fundamental disconnect between those who make wine and those who sell it. Most winemakers are romantics at heart. They’re deeply bonded to what they produce, and they tend to ignore the invisible hand of the marketplace. “We’ve made something beautiful,” they think. “Surely others will notice.”

But by the time that wine reaches the consumer, it’s just one bottle among thousands—wrapped in similar language, blending into the noise. Even discovering that such a wine exists is, for most consumers, close to impossible.

Let’s take the U.S. as an example. There are roughly 11,300 wine producers in the country—but just 14 distributors control 71% of the market. Their combined portfolios include no more than 400–500 wineries. That leaves about 10,800 producers fighting for a 29% share. How can their voices ever be heard?

In Turkey, larger producers often rely on their own distribution networks. Some integrate small-scale local delivery into their models, while others work with wholesalers. Chain supermarkets also play a significant role in reaching end consumers. 

Meanwhile, small and mid-sized wineries often rely on regional distributors, or sell directly to restaurants and local shops. An increasing number have invested in vineyard hotels—an effort to boost their share of direct-to-consumer sales.

As wine routes continue to expand, this form of direct engagement is likely to grow even stronger.

THE MARKETING CHALLENGES FACING TURKISH PRODUCERS

Limited scale and shrinking budgets mean that very few Turkish wineries can maintain dedicated marketing departments. Stricter advertising regulations only make the task harder.

Outside of a few larger firms with established teams, most producers juggle sales and marketing with small in-house crews—sometimes even relying on family members to lend a hand. Still, they carry on.

And so will we.

The second part of this piece will appear in our next bulletin.